Executive Summary

Q3 delivered a clean top/bottom-line beat and guidance raise: revenue $231.1M, +$21M above the high end of guidance; GAAP EPS $0.91; adjusted EPS $1.06; adjusted EBITDA $87.8M; margins expanded (Gross: 54%, Adjusted Gross: 61%) .
Versus Street: Revenue beat by ~16% ($231.1M vs $199.0M consensus*) and EPS beat was material ($1.06 vs -$0.13 consensus*). Management said both revenue and profitability exceeded analyst consensus .
Guidance raised across the board for FY25 (Revenue to $775–$835M; Net Income to $60–$75M; Adj. EPS/Adj. NI to $70–$85M; Adj. EBITDA to $195–$210M; Adj. Gross Margin % to 52–54%), with higher MCM midpoint and Commercial unchanged .
Key drivers: strong sequential naloxone performance (Narcan units +13% QoQ) with stabilized U.S. pricing, and continued international MCM demand (34% of MCM YTD), plus four new U.S. contract modifications in Q3 .
Balance sheet/flows improved: liquidity $346M (cash $246M + $100M revolver), net leverage ~2.1x; company repurchased $6.9M bonds and 1.1M shares in Q3 (2.3M YTD) .

Note: *Values retrieved from S&P Global.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well
- Beat internal guidance: “again beat the high end of our third quarter 2025 revenue guidance by $21 million” and raised FY25 guidance; confidence in achieving the high end of adjusted EBITDA .
- Naloxone recovery with stabilized U.S. pricing and improved sequential trends; Narcan unit volume +13% QoQ; management reiterated category leadership .
- International MCM momentum: 11 YTD contract modifications/orders; 34% of YTD MCM revenue from international customers, with four new USG contract mods in Q3 totaling ~$155M and $29M international orders .
What Went Wrong
- Year-over-year declines vs heavy comp: Q3 revenue $231.1M vs $293.8M in Q3’24; commercial Naloxone -21% YoY; Smallpox MCM -37% YoY due to timing; Anthrax MCM -88% YoY (timing of BioThrax/CYFENDUS sales) .
- Commercial segment margin compression: Commercial Products gross margin % down YoY (31% vs 41%); pricing/volume mix pressure in OTC Narcan/Canada offset only partly by KLOXXADO growth .
- Services “All Other” softer YoY with the sale of Camden and reduced funded R&D; Services revenue -68% YoY .

Financial Results

Headline results and margins (chronological: YoY comp → Q1’25 → Q2’25 → Q3’25)

Metric	Q3 2024	Q1 2025	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Total Revenues ($M)	$293.8	$222.2	$140.9	$231.1
Net Income ($M)	$114.8	$68.0	$(12.0)	$51.2
Diluted EPS ($)	$2.06	$1.19	$(0.22)	$0.91
Adjusted Net Income ($M)	$76.2	$40.7	$8.6	$60.4
Adjusted EPS ($)	$1.37	$0.71	$0.16	$1.06
Gross Margin %	51%	50%	36%	54%
Adjusted Gross Margin %	59%	58%	49%	61%
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)	$105.3	$77.6	$28.5	$87.8
Adjusted EBITDA Margin %	36%	35%	20%	38%
R&D ($M)	$13.8	$15.1	$12.5	$13.5
SG&A ($M)	$76.6	$52.4	$43.7	$38.9

Segment/Product revenue mix

Category ($M)	Q3 2024	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Naloxone (Narcan + KLOXXADO)	$95.3	$67.5	$74.9
Anthrax MCM	$11.4	$11.6	$1.4
Smallpox MCM	$132.7	$40.6	$83.6
Other Products (incl. BAT)	$30.1	$6.2	$57.5
Total Product Sales, net	$269.5	$125.9	$217.4
All Other Revenues (Services, C&G)	$24.3	$15.0	$13.7
Total Revenues	$293.8	$140.9	$231.1

Liquidity, leverage and cash flow KPIs

KPI	Q3 2024	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Liquidity ($M) (Cash + Revolver)	$250 (Cash $150 + Revolver $100)	$367 (Cash $267 + Revolver $100)	$346 (Cash $246 + Revolver $100)
Gross Debt ($M)	$701	$700	$693
Net Debt ($M)	$551	$433	$448
Net Leverage (x)	3.3x	1.9x	2.1x
YTD Operating Cash Flow ($M)	$139 (YTD’24) vs $93 (YTD’25) shown for context	—	—
Capex ($M)	$5.8 (Q3’24)	$2.9 (Q2’25)	$3.4 (Q3’25)

Results vs. Street (S&P Global consensus)

Metric	Consensus*	Actual	Surprise
Revenue ($M)	199.0*	231.1	+32.1
EPS (Adjusted) ($)	-0.13*	1.06	+1.19

Note: Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Non-GAAP adjustments (Q3’25)

Adjusted Net Income $60.4M vs GAAP NI $51.2M; net $9.2M of adjustments, primarily non-cash amortization $18.8M, partially offset by settlement reimbursement (-$10.5M) and tax effects .

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous (8/6/25)	Current (10/29/25)	Change
Total Revenues ($M)	FY 2025	$765–$835	$775–$835	Raised (midpoint)
Net Income ($M)	FY 2025	$40–$65	$60–$75	Raised
Adjusted Net Income ($M)	FY 2025	$45–$70	$70–$85	Raised
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)	FY 2025	$175–$200	$195–$210	Raised
Adjusted Gross Margin %	FY 2025	50%–52%	52%–54%	Raised
MCM Products Revenue ($M)	FY 2025	$440–$475	$450–$475	Raised (midpoint)
Commercial Products Revenue ($M)	FY 2025	$265–$300	$265–$300	Maintained
Interest Expense ($M)	FY 2025	~$50	$55	Increased
SG&A (% of Revenue)	FY 2025	~26%–27%	~25%–26%	Lowered
R&D (% of Revenue)	FY 2025	~7%–8%	~7%–8%	Unchanged
Weighted Avg. Diluted Shares (M)	FY 2025	~54	~56	Higher
Capex ($M)	FY 2025	~$16	~$16	Unchanged
D&A ($M)	FY 2025	~$100	~$100	Unchanged

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q1’25, Q2’25)	Current Period (Q3’25)	Trend
Naloxone pricing/volume	Q1: OTC pricing/mix pressure; category leadership maintained . Q2: rebound post Q1 one-offs; category leadership; normalization underway .	Pricing stabilized; Narcan unit volume +13% QoQ; sequential revenue growth .	Improving sequentially; stabilization confirmed.
International MCM mix	Q1: ~60% of MCM sales were international . Q2: 48% of MCM YTD .	34% of MCM YTD; 4 new USG mods; $29M international orders .	Robust, normalizing mix; pipeline of orders continues.
Government demand/resilience	Q1: U.S. agencies aligned on deliveries; EU/HERA MCM strategy emerging . Q2: 7 YTD contract mods; NATO defense spend signals tailwinds .	11 YTD contract mods; four in Q3 across TEMBEXA, ACAM2000, CYFENDUS, VIGIV .	Strong continuity of demand.
Cash/liquidity and capital allocation	Q1: Liquidity improved; share repurchase program authorized . Q2: Liquidity $367M; net leverage 1.9x; buybacks started .	Liquidity $346M; net leverage 2.1x; continued buybacks and $6.9M unsecured bonds repurchased .	Balanced deployment with deleveraging.
Rocketvax collaboration	Q2: investment/partnership initiated .	Phase 1 expected to start early 2026; live-attenuated platform aligned with NextGen .	Early pipeline option; modest near-term impact.
Regulatory/ops	Q1: multiple inspections, compliant .	No macro disruption cited; continued engagement with USG despite shutdown .	Stable operations/tone.

Management Commentary

“We are proud to again beat the high end of our third quarter 2025 revenue guidance by $21 million, with continued margin expansion that gives us confidence in meeting the higher end of our adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2025.” — Joe Papa, CEO .
“Quarter over quarter, Narcan unit volume grew by 13% and revenue grew by 9%... pricing has stabilized for Narcan” .
“We’re raising our total revenue guidance to $775–$835 million and adjusted EBITDA to $195–$210 million” — CFO Rich Lindahl .
“Liquidity remains very strong… $346 million in financial capacity” .
“International customers represent 34% of our medical countermeasures orders year to date” .

Q&A Highlights

Other Products growth: driven largely by contracts & grants activity (Ebola/Ebanga development) in 2025 .
International MCM: orders are typically specific-quantity/time contracts; the company views international demand as a multi-year growth opportunity as EU and others build stockpiles .
International vs U.S. MCM margins: international pricing is generally higher; USG receives most-favored-nation pricing due to funding support .
Narcan dynamics: Canada/province variability by quarter; OTC and Canada were softer YoY due to price/volume mix; sequential momentum intact .
Government shutdown: no disruption to engagement or programs with SNS/BARDA/DoD; operations continued .

Estimates Context

Q3’25 revenue beat: $231.1M actual vs $199.0M consensus*; adjusted EPS beat: $1.06 vs -$0.13 consensus*. Management noted both revenue and profitability exceeded analyst consensus .
Implications: upward revisions likely to FY25 EPS/EBITDA and gross margin trajectory given raised guidance; consensus may need to reflect stronger H2 MCM deliveries and sequential naloxone improvement .

Note: *Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

Guidance raised across all profitability metrics with gross margin mix improvement; Q4 set up appears strong as management targets the high end of FY adjusted EBITDA .
Naloxone recovery and stabilized pricing are improving Commercial segment visibility; KLOXXADO adds incremental contribution and channel breadth .
MCM demand remains robust and diversified: 11 YTD contract mods, increasing international participation (34% YTD) and multiple Q3 awards across TEMBEXA, ACAM2000, CYFENDUS, and VIGIV support 2025–26 revenue .
Balance sheet flexibility improved (liquidity $346M; net leverage ~2.1x) supporting buybacks, opportunistic bond repurchases, and selective BD/pipeline investments .
Watch the mix: Commercial margin compression persists YoY; incremental Narcan volume growth and mix normalization are key to re-expanding Commercial margins in 2026 .
Near-term trading setup: positive skew from raised FY guide and visible Q4 catalysts (MCM deliveries; naloxone sequential trends), with timing-related lumpiness the main risk factor .
Medium-term: continued international MCM build-outs (EU/HERA) and selective external programs (e.g., Rocketvax) could broaden growth optionality beyond 2025 .

Appendix: Additional Detail

Other relevant press items during Q3

New publication evaluating brincidofovir (TEMBEXA) as potential antiviral for mpox; aligns with smallpox/mpox portfolio positioning .
Expanded NARCANDirect to include KLOXXADO and convenience kits (announced earlier in Q3) .

Revenue composition and operating drivers (Q3’25 vs Q3’24)

Naloxone: -21% YoY on lower OTC Narcan and Canada volume/price mix, partially offset by KLOXXADO growth .
Anthrax MCM: -88% YoY on timing of BioThrax/CYFENDUS sales .
Smallpox MCM: -37% YoY on timing of ACAM2000/VIGIV USG sales, partially offset by higher international TEMBEXA/ACAM2000/VIGIV .
Other Products: +91% YoY on higher BAT USG sales (timing) .
Operating expenses materially lower YoY on SG&A reductions and one-time settlement reimbursement .

Emergent BioSolutions Inc. (EBS)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary